Summer 40k League R4 Roundup and R5 Prediction

We have crossed the half way point and the wheat (me) is being sorted from the chaff (Harry) now. Any slip ups still allow big changes in league position. Here is the roundup from last weeks pairings and how I think Round 5 will go.

Round 4 Roundup

Sam (All Armigers) V Max (IA nonsense)

Prediction: Sam

Result: Sam

The fact that we had already played has no bearing upon my prescience.

Ben B (Seer Council Aeldari) V Ross (Aspect Host Aeldari)

Prediction: Ross

Result: Ben B

I underestimated Ben here, or overestimated Ross I am not sure. I saw his dead pile at the end of T2 and honestly this just lends credence to the story he stole his VT jersey out of Boxy's garbage.

Jack (Final Day GSC) V Tom S (Gladius UM)

Prediction: Jack

Result: Jack

I think Jack might finally be learning how to play GSC - his boards look a lot more sensible around T3 than they used to, with lots still waiting to get involved. Obviously this means it is time he is starting a new army, Deathwatch.

Chris (mechanised Hammer) V "Craig" (Champs DG)

Prediction: Chris

Result: Chris

A bumming for Craig was the order of the day here. Craig might be on the opposite spectrum to Jack - somehow getting worse at his army the more he plays. Are you OK Craig?

Mike (Sharshatter Necrons) V Luke (MSU Votann)

Prediction: Luke

Result: Mike

Luke's list is showing cracks now or is it his brain slowly rotting away? A question for the ages. I, for one, am hoping he finds another netlist to copy mini for mini rather than risk his smooth brain creating one himself.

Fletcher (Peerless EC) V Ryan (Canis + Armigers)

Prediction: Ryan

Result: Fletcher

Fletcher has finally gotten a win against a bad matchup, which means I can pair him into Death Guard again, as he loves it so much.

Jenko (50 Breachers Kauyon) V Dan (Virulent DG)

Prediction: Jenko

Result: Dan

A two point victory here for Dan staves off predictions of aggressive mediocrity for one more week. Jenko's sad face when he was getting outgunned by Death Guard as Tau was a thing to behold.

Sean (Mixed Arms WE) V Luke N (Awakened Necrons)

Prediction: Luke N

Result: Sean

I felt Sean was having a rough time with WE until this game. Then he killed Szeras, Warrior brick and Wraith brick by end of T1. Absolutely devastatingly crippling - ing. I would have sold my army for a shilling and walked out.

Ben J (Gladius UM) V James (Invasion Nids)

Prediction: James

Result: James

Ben got ruined.

Nick (Lions Custodes) V Freddie (Mental Stormfang Wolves)

Prediction: Freddie

Result: Nick

Why the fuck did I back that stupid Wolves list?? Good work Nick and I can only apologise for not backing you.

Maybe choosing an army that doesn't get its Codex until halfway through the league wasn't an awesome choice...

Mark (Reapers Drukhari) V Tom D (Taktical Orks)

Prediction: Mark

Result: Mark

This was the sort of feeding that Drukhari live for - lots of infantry bodies. And the green fungus boys got hoovered up.

Harry Lord of the Rubric V Jamie (Dread CK)

Prediction: Jamie

Result: Jamie

I predicted Harry was going to get totally run over here but it was a narrow 4 pt win for Jamie. It sounded like a great game with Magnus tanking absurd amounts and snake eyes into snake eyes charges.

Predictions

Starting from the bottom up and king of the bussy Harry kicks us off.

Harry Lord of the Rubric V Tom D (Taktical Orks)

Prediction: Harry

I think this could go either way as Tom certainly has the rush pressure to fuck with Harrys sweet but tiny brain. The key will be whether Tom can keep his assets alive to do a brutal Waagh push and stop Harry from getting back into the game.

Freddie (TWC are back baby Stormlance) V Jamie (Infernal Wardogs) Prediction: Freddie

Mr Space Wolf is gonna be howling a rage of vengeance for not being able to play his new boys for so long and I think he will make that known. Expect aggressive dice rolls and demands for treats.

I dont know if the wolves can actually put enough damage in enough places to put down the Wardogs fast enough but by jove he is going to try,

Luke N (Awakened Necrons) V John (Hekaton Votann)

Prediction: Luke

Luke had a game that beats all statistical predictions last week and I don't think John has the volume needed to get through the two annoying bricks that Luke has in his list. I think john can pop Szeras twice with ease and the other targets but he has to find an answer to at least one brick otherwise primary is going to get brutal fast.

Ben J (UM Gladius) V Ryan (4 Bigs IK)

Prediction: Ben J

This is a close one - Ryan could easily overpower primary early doors and make it seem hopeless for Ben. However if Ben keeps his head and slowly deals with one big at a time (re rolling hits and wounding on 2s is saucy) I think he can force his way back in. But Ben also sometimes forgets how to play 40k so who knows.

Dickie (Hammer Guard) V Mark (Reapers Drukhari)

Prediction: Mark

Although Drukhari dont love loads of armour they do have the ability to focus down single big units and guess what Dickie has - Queen Liz. If Mark can haywire the old lady down quick smart he will be able to focus on killing the OC Dickie has and get the game won. If he doesn't manage to pop Queen Liz quickly I think Dickie will get the victory.

Jenko (50 Breachers Kauyon) V Nick (Lions Custodes)

Prediction: Jenko

I have personally experienced targets Breacher fire into Custodes units and it has made me sad. The flip side of that is I have made an obnoxious number of 4++'s into Jenko so who fucking knows!

James (Invasion Nids) V Luke (MSU Votann)

Prediction: Luke

This is another close one I think as James could potentially play around being judged, due to his volume of units, and has a bunch of OC he can jam onto objectives. However Luke is now a dab hand with these Votann and will be wanting to come back from last weeks loss so I think he can pip it with those very many Lascannons going into monsters.

James make sure to look out for the patented "Luke Sulk" if things don't go his way and get a picture subtly so we can add to the sticker collection.

Dan (Virulent DG) V Craig (Champions DG)

Prediction: Death Guard

No fucking clue who wins this - the lists are extremely similar in their core pieces and might come down to who goes second. Keep it close and score big on T5 with a couple of challenger cards perhaps. It might come down to dice rolls just as much.

Tom S (UM Gladius) V Sean (Zerker WE)

Prediction: Sean

This is a game that Tom can win but it will take careful screening to prevent all of Sean's killy boys getting into the juicy backbone of the UM. As we saw from last week the WE can kill anything they touch, including some of the toughest things in the game, and UM are not that tough.

A slow cagey game is the order of the day here - expand too quickly and you will get overrun but a precise ranged murder of the WE might get the job done.

Fletcher (Peerless EC) V Ross (Aspect Aeldari)

Prediction: Ross

Fletcher would have been thrilled to find out he isn't playing Knights or DG and then sad when he realises it's Ross coming for his ass, and not in the good way.

If Fletcher wasn't running Fulgrim I would say this is a more open game but I am pretty sure Fulgrim doesn't one shot an Avatar and then gets smashed, anus agape back into the warp by Fuegan, Fire Dragons and Avatar.

Max (IA nonsense) V Mike (Starshatter Necrons)

Prediction: Mike

Although Mike doesn't have the usual advantage that Wraiths out OC everything I think they can actually kill opposition units here. But I have doubted Max before and been made to look foolish and I do think they have a game here. The usual jail isn't quite as effective as the Wraiths can fly and then charge what is standing on two objectives.

Relying on just the Deathwatch to kill the Wraiths might be tough as well as they don't have a precision character than can hit the Technomancer. It might take a DW brick plus Canis to kill a Wraith unit, precision on Canis and pray the invuls don't catch you out. But then there is two DDA's and TSK to kill Canis and I am not sure what answers Max has to that.

Jack (Final Day GSC) V Chris (Dorn heavy Guard)

Prediction: Jack

Chris is actually on a bit of a streak but I think it could come to an end here. Jack can effectively trade his cheap shit into Chris's OC and Bullgryn and believes he can kill Knights so Dorns aren't THAT much tougher. I guess we will see if Jack was chatting shit or not.

Sam (Armigeddon IK) V Ben B (Seer Council Aeldari)

Prediction: Sam

In our most recent game Ben B beat my IK list but that was all Bigs and I think was a better matchup for Aeldari as they can focus fire the big dudes down but it is harder into more, shitter targets, which is what I am rocking here. I am praying my fire based Sisters, Inquisitor and Immolators can mow down filthy knife ears with abandon.